Kelvin Gee
Elon Musk’s Master Plan Three

Master Plan 3 envisions the world forcibly ushered into the future—started by one company, by one man’s grand vision. Our children’s future, and their children’s future, and their children’s children’s future, is a very different future than imagined. It is not just a new age for humanity, but a new age for all living things on Earth.

Elon Musk’s Master Plan Three
Kelvin Gee
Tesla Investor Day Preview
Tesla Investor Day Preview
Kelvin Gee
Tesla Q4 2022 Earnings and Call Overview
Tesla Q4 2022 Earnings and Call Overview
Product Review
Kelvin Gee
EV Weight Impact on Range
EV Weight Impact on Range
This is TOSV
Kelvin Gee
THIS IS TOSV: LEO NGUYEN
THIS IS TOSV: LEO NGUYEN

Tesla Takeover, the Largest Event of the Year for Tesla Owners and EV Enthusiasts, Is Now Open for Registration

San Luis Obispo, CA, May 10, 2023 – Tesla Takeover, the largest in-person community event for Tesla owners and electric vehicle enthusiasts in North America, organized by Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley, is now open for registration. The two-day event will take place on July 29–30, 2023, in San Luis Obispo, California, and aims to bring together Tesla owners, EV enthusiasts, and industry experts to celebrate the future of electric vehicles and the Tesla brand. Last year's event hosted over thirteen hundred attendees, and this year is projected to exceed that.

At the event, attendees can look forward to spending time with the community, sharing knowledge, and enjoying a range of activities, including over 60 exhibitors that sell unique accessories, services, and products for Tesla; a special camping expo; a Super Modified Tesla Car Contest; and an EV Showcase featuring a collection of rare and original Tesla Roadsters and EVs from other brands. Additionally, attendees can learn about the latest in Tesla vehicles and energy products, charging, customizations, tires, and other related topics.

The weekend will be highlighted by keynote presenter Maye Musk, world-renowned dietician, model, entrepreneur, and bestselling author, and Sandy Munro, CEO of Munro Associates.

 

“We are excited to bring together the electric car community and celebrate the future of transportation," said John Stringer, President of Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley, the lead organizer for the event. “Our event will provide attendees with the opportunity to learn from experts in the industry, connect with like-minded individuals, and experience the latest advancements in electric car technology from Tesla.”

About Tesla Takeover
Tesla Takeover is North America's largest in-person community event for Tesla owners and enthusiasts. This iconic event is open to all people interested in EVs. There will be numerous opportunities to connect, share information, and learn about the latest advancements in electric vehicle technology. Tesla Takeover is dedicated to promoting the use of electric vehicles and advancing sustainable transportation. Tesla Takeover is a community-led event and is not sponsored by Tesla, Inc. or any of its affiliates.

For more information about the event or to purchase tickets, visit TeslaTakeover.com.

About Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley
Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley (TOSV) is a community of Tesla enthusiasts and owners who are dedicated to promoting sustainable transportation and renewable energy. With over 6,000 members and a digital reach of nearly 1 million social media followers, TOSV provides a platform for members to connect, share information, and organize events that showcase the benefits of driving Teslas and electric vehicles. TOSV also collaborates with local organizations to advance its mission of accelerating the transition to a clean energy future. 

For more information about Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley, visit TeslaSiliconValley.com.

California to Implement a Ban on Diesel Trucks

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will grant California “waivers” to enforce tougher environmental rules approved by state regulators, according to The Washington Post. This will improve air quality, as heavy-duty trucks emit harmful pollutants linked to respiratory illness and death.

California’s new rules for heavy-duty vehicles have national significance, as six other states representing 20% of heavy-duty vehicle sales have committed to following California’s stricter standards. However, the Clean Air Act requires the EPA to grant California a waiver before these plans can be put into action.

The rules include stricter pollution limits for delivery vans, garbage trucks, and 18-wheelers, starting in 2024, three years ahead of the administration’s latest regulations. Truck makers will also have to sell increasing percentages of zero-emission vehicles each year, eventually reaching a target of selling all-electric or hydrogen fuel-cell trucks by 2045. Finally, a third waiver request extends the warranty period of trucks’ emissions controls to reduce pollution over their lifetimes.

A Big Win for Tesla

For Tesla, there is actually very good news, as this is something that could help the company increase sales of its Semi truck. At the moment, the amount of Tesla Semi trucks are not large, but the company is gradually increasing the production of its trucks.

Here are some key features of the Tesla Semi (fully loaded at 82k lbs gross combination weight):

  • 0-60 mph: 20 seconds

  • Range: 300 or 500 miles

  • Fast Charging: Up to 70% of range in 30 minutes

  • Fuel Savings (est.): Up to $200,000 over three years

“If you’re a trucker and you want the most badass rig on the road, this is it” - Elon Musk

The Tesla Semi is a highly potential vehicle that could revolutionize the perception of electric trucks among people.

Trust Ted Product Review: Curbee Mobile Detailing

By Ted Marena

Many vehicle owners, including Tesla drivers, insist on keeping their cars clean and looking gorgeous. Some owners live in high-density housing where washing their vehicles is not possible. Others could go to a detailing location or do it themselves at home, but they may not have the time. Perhaps you are not good at cleaning and detailing your car’s exterior and interior, so you would rather pay someone else to do it.

For those of you in the Bay Area, there now exists a mobile detailing service that comes to your home or office. The company is called Curbee, and they come to your home or workplace to clean your interior and exterior using an eco-friendly process. Because they use a minimal amount of water, this service is not for heavily soiled cars but for normal dirty vehicles. Recently they visited me and cleaned my dirty Model Y. Check out the Curbee process in this video review we recently posted.:

Trust Ted Product Review: Rally Armor Mud Flaps Evannex

By Ted Marena

Although our owners club is in the Bay Area, many Tesla owners live in climates that have four seasons. These weather extremes can be especially tough on the paint and finish of your Tesla. To help protect your vehicle from the dirt, grit, and grime of the road, many owners look to install mud flaps.

The Tesla mud flaps are only for the front two wheels of the vehicle, but often owners want all four-wheel quarter panels to be protected. The Tesla accessory company, Evannex, offers mud flaps for the Model 3 and Y from Rally Armor. These mud flaps are much more flexible than others that we have reviewed. That flexibility is important for potholes or objects that you may run into. The mud flap will flex and not crack off, which can happen when the mud flap is rigid. In a recent video, I reviewed the Rally Armor mud flaps for my Model Y.

Trust Ted Product Review: TESPLUS Mud Flaps

By Ted Marena

Although we live in Silicon Valley where the weather generally is great, many owners live in climates that have four seasons. These owners’ Teslas experience sun, rain and snow. All of us have to deal with road dirt and debris when we drive the vehicles we love. These conditions of varied weather and road challenges can be tough on the paint of your Tesla. In particular, the bottom panels just behind the wheels are susceptible to dirt, grime, mud, etc.

To help protect your vehicle from the road and various weather conditions, you could install mud flaps on your vehicle. We recently reviewed mud flaps from a Tesla accessory company, TESPLUS. Check out my recent video here:

Trust Ted Product Review: Jowua MagSafe Seat Holder

By Ted Marena

It seems like certain times of the year make people get obsessed with organizing. Perhaps for you, it is New Year’s or spring cleaning or almost every week! Regardless of how much you like to organize, we often want to keep our Tesla vehicles tidy. After all, we spend lots of time in our Teslas. Having storage, organizing, and access to our things is important as we go about our daily lives. If you often travel with kids, you know this is all the more important as they usually have lots of requests.

One accessory we recently stumbled across was a Jowua MagSafe Seat Holder. These are installed in the headrest of your Tesla. They not only act as a holder for an iPhone or other devices for those in the back seat, but they can also function as a bag or coat holder. Check out our video review of this device:

Tesla Launches a New Ultra Red Color for the Model S and Model X in the U.S.

According to Tesla’s website, a new Ultra Red color is now available to order for the Model S and Model X in the U.S.

Our newest paint offering features a high-chroma color and multi-layered paint process that delivers an exceptionally vibrant finish—exclusive to new Model S and Model X vehicles

– Tesla

It is known that the Ultra Red color costs $3,000 and the old red has been discontinued for these car models.

Tesla has also posted a YouTube video about the Ultra Red:

According to some, Ultra Red is distinguishable from regular red:

Tesla has made changes to its paint shops in recent years, with a particular emphasis on introducing new colors at the Gigafactory Berlin in Germany.

Tesla has now introduced the Ultra Red in the U.S. and this new color has been well-received based on comments online.

Tesla Releases Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta 11.3.1 to Non-Tesla Employees

There are over 400,000 Tesla owners currently in North America participating in the FSD Beta program after its wider release last year. According to Twitter accounts, some people have received the FSD Beta 11.3.1 update.

What’s new?

Release notes

  • Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks and was set up to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta’s multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, which allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control, and better decision-making.

  • Improved recall for close-by cut-in cases by 15%, particularly for large trucks and high-yaw rate scenarios, through an additional 30k auto-labeled clips, mined from the fleet. Additionally, expanded and tuned dedicated speed control for cut-in objects.

  • Improved the position of ego in wide lanes, by biasing in the direction of the upcoming turn to allow other cars to maneuver around ego.

  • Improved handling during scenarios with high curvature or large trucks by offsetting in lanes to maintain safe distances to other vehicles on the road and increase comfort.

  • Improved behavior for path blockage lane changes in dense traffic. Ego will now maintain more headway in blocked lanes to hedge for possible cans in dense traffic.

  • Improved lane changes in dense traffic scenarios by allowing higher acceleration during the alignment phase, This results in more natural gap selection to overtake adjacent lane vehicles very close to ego

  • Made turns smoother by improving the detection consistency between lanes, lines, and road edge predictions. This was accomplished by integrating the latest version of the lane guidance module into the road edge and lines network.

  • Improved accuracy for detecting other vehicles’ moving semantics. Improved precision by 23% for cases where other vehicles transition to driving and reduced error by 12% for cases where Autopilot incorrectly detects its lead vehicle as parked. These were achieved by increasing video context in the network, adding more data on these scenarios, and increasing the loss penalty for control-relevant vehicles.

  • Extended maximum trajectory optimization horizon, resulting in smoother control for high curvature roads and far away vehicles when driving at highway speeds.

  • Improved driving behavior next to rows of parked cars in narrow lanes, preferring to offset and stay within lane instead of unnecessarily lane changing away or slowing down.

  • Reduced false offsetting around objects in wide lanes and near intersections by improving object kinematics modeling in low-speed scenarios.

From Santa Monica to Downtown Los Angeles on Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 11.3.1

Conclusion

Tesla has implemented enhancements that will allow the vehicle to carry out a greater range of tasks while driving. The Autopilot functionality is tested in various conditions, thanks to the extensive group of FSD Beta users. Tesla also takes into account feedback from car owners and enhances their autonomous system to make driving safer and reduce reliance on human intervention while driving.

Elon Musk’s Master Plan Three

Elon Musk’s Master Plan Three

Master Plan 3 envisions the world forcibly ushered into the future—started by one company, by one man’s grand vision. Our children’s future, and their children’s future, and their children’s children’s future, is a very different future than imagined. It is not just a new age for humanity, but a new age for all living things on Earth.

Tesla Model S and Model X Receive the Kelley Blue Book “Best Resale Value” Award for 2023

Kelley Blue Book (KBB) designated 28 cars as recipients of its “Best Resale Value” award for 2023, “recognizing vehicles for their projected retained value through the initial five-year ownership period.” Tesla received two of these awards for their Model S and Model X vehicles. 

The Tesla Model S retains its value the best among luxury vehicles, according to KBB. Tesla Model X has received the same award among luxury SUVs. After five years of use, the Model X is valued at 66% of its full price, while the Model S is valued at 57%. This is an incredible achievement for an electric car company.

CONCLUSION

The Kelley Blue Book “Best Resale Value” award clearly emphasizes that Tesla cars are reliable and can be quite profitable for the owner in the subsequent sale. Another advantage of Tesla is that their vehicles regularly receive over-the-air software updates that make the car more innovative. This is an excellent achievement for the entire Tesla team.

Tesla Cuts Prices of Model X and S

Tesla has reduced the prices of Tesla Model X and S cars in the U.S. just days after Tesla’s Investor Day.

 According to Tesla’s website, the Model S and X have dropped in price again. Tesla has reduced the price of the Tesla Model S all-wheel drive (AWD) from $94,990 to $89,990 (-5.2%), while the Plaid variant dropped from $114,990 to $109,990 (-4.2%).

The Model X AWD is now available for $99,990, down 9.1% from $109,990. The Tesla Model X Plaid fell in price from $119,990 to $109,990 (-8.3%).

During the Tesla Investor Day event, Elon Musk said that people want to own a Tesla, but the price is still high:

“The desire for people to own a Tesla is extremely high. The limiting factor is their ability to pay for a Tesla.”

–Elon Musk

What does it mean?

In recent months, Tesla has been reducing the prices of their cars in both the U.S. and Europe. By reducing the price, the company proves that it dominates the market.

For Tesla, it is a priority to make cars more affordable to people so that everyone can switch to electric vehicles. At Tesla’s Investor Day, the company said they would cut prices of the next-generation car in half, so perhaps people greatly underestimate Tesla and the company’s capabilities to scale and mass produce an affordable electric car.

“Tesla’s long-term competitive advantage will be manufacturing.”

–Elon Musk

Production efficiency could play a crucial role for Tesla. Elon Musk has big plans for Tesla, so the transition to electric cars could happen sooner than we expect.

 

Tesla to Build a Gigafactory in Mexico

On Tuesday, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that Tesla will build a factory in the city of Monterrey, Mexico’s industrial hub. The next day, during the Tesla Investor Day event in Austin, Texas, Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla has big plans and will build a Gigafactory in Mexico.

Jesus Nava, the mayor of Santa Catarina in the state of Nuevo León, told Reuters in an interview that Tesla is buying a site that covers nearly 4,200 acres of industrial land. That’s more than twice the size of Mexico City International Airport.

As claimed by Nava, Tesla will spend about $5 billion and hire about 5,000 people, which will later expand to $10 billion and up to 10,000 workers. Thereby this will be the world’s largest electric vehicle factory in Mexico.

According to Tom Zhu, who oversees Tesla’s U.S. factories and sales operations in North America and Europe, Tesla will attempt to break Giga Shanghai’s speed record when building the plant. The Tesla plant in Shanghai was completed in 9.5 months.

Jesus Nava said that in three months, the production of the plant in Mexico will begin, and then Tesla will reveal which cars will be manufactured there. Most likely, Tesla's next-generation vehicle platform will be built in Mexico first:

Also, Samuel García, the governor of the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, does not hide his excitement that Tesla chose Mexico:

“Tesla is coming to Nuevo León. Why shouldn’t we feel proud when everyone wanted this plant? China, Germany, England, Brazil, Canada and Mr. Musk chose Mexico.”

Why Mexico?

According to Bloomberg Línea, there are several factors that could have prompted Tesla to build a factory in Nuevo León, Mexico:

  1. Mexico’s geographic location has always been considered one of the country’s main advantages in the world since it has easy access to the U.S. market.

  2. Santa Catarina’s vocation is manufacturing, with companies producing products for the transportation and power generation sectors, as well as metals, household appliances, electronic equipment, food and beverages, and machinery and equipment.

  3. There are already about 120 Tesla suppliers in Mexico, which arrived in Nuevo León in 2021, and some of which are located in Santa Catarina or in neighboring municipalities.

  4. Mexico has a strong automotive industry and is a manufacturing powerhouse, as the seventh-largest vehicle manufacturer in the world and the largest in Latin America. It is the fourth-largest largest exporter of auto parts in the world and the leading supplier to the U.S. market.

  5. On February 27, the Nuevo León government announced the creation of the Agency for the Promotion and Use of Renewable Energies, which is part of the government’s strategy to increase investments and grow the industry, but not at the expense of the environment.

Tesla Overtakes Ford

In the category of U.S. brand loyalty, Tesla has finally overtaken Ford.  Tesla and General Motors rounded up the big wins this year for the 2022 Automotive Loyalty Awards. The category of “Overall Loyalty to Make” award that had been dominated by Ford for the past decade was finally unseated by Tesla.

After a challenging three years for the automotive industry, the retention of customers post-pandemic had been in flux. Tesla’s brand resonated with ethnic consumers which drove loyalty numbers and diversity retention. “Ethnic buyers have increased their market share in the industry every year for the last decade, making them an important audience in building loyalty success for the foreseeable future,” Vince Palomarez (S&P Global Mobility product manager) said. This fact resulted in Tesla also winning the “Ethnic Market Loyalty to Make” award, as ethnic consumers made up 52 percent of loyal volume.

Other notable wins for Tesla came with repeat wins for “Highest Conquest Percentage” and “Alternative Powertrain Loyalty to Make.” It also won “Most Improved Loyalty to Make” and two segment model loyalty awards for the Tesla Model 3 sedan and the Tesla Model Y crossover.

Vince Palomarez commented that the results of this year’s awards show that electric vehicles are starting to gain more of a foothold in the industry in terms of market share.

Here is a list of the winners from the 2022 Automotive Loyalty Awards.

TESLA SIGNS DEAL WITH SOUTH KOREA’S L&F COMPANY

L&F Co., a South Korean battery-materials maker, signed a $2.91 billion supply contract with Tesla Inc. The deal consists of the company providing high-nickel cathode materials to Tesla for two years from Jan. 1, 2024, through Dec. 31, 2025.

NORTHERN MEXICO GREEN LIGHTS TESLA PLANT

After speculation had circulated for months on Tesla going to Mexico, Lopez Obrader, Mexico’s president, announced on Tuesday that a new Tesla assembly plant will be built in the Northern Mexico City of Santa Catarina in the greater Monterrey area. The deal, worth $5 billion, marks Tesla’s substantial push to broaden operations outside the U.S.

There is speculation on if the plant would be a Tesla Gigafactory that could produce the Semi truck, Roadster sports car, and potentially other vehicles like the Model Y sport utility vehicles (SUV).

There are concessions that had to be made in order for the deal to happen. Tesla would not be granted any subsidies to make batteries or semiconductors. The water shortage in Mexico had been a concern, and Elon worked with the Obrader Administration to arrange for recycled water to be used in the assembly process. Overall, the deal “…will represent a considerable investment and many, many jobs,” Lopez Obrador told reporters. This can be counted as a major step forward as overall investment has been stifled by the Obrador Administration, which has strengthened state control on the energy markets at the expense of private capital.

Tesla Opens Superchargers to Non-Tesla EV Owners in the U.S.

“Even if there’s a zombie apocalypse, you’ll still be able to travel using the Tesla Supercharging system.”

–Elon Musk

After a rather difficult relationship between Tesla and the U.S. government, both sides finally came to an understanding and made a choice that will be great for everyone. Tesla will open part of its U.S. charging network to electric vehicles (EVs) made by other automakers.

 

Superchargers Worldwide!

There are over 40,000 Supercharger stations in the world. The Tesla Supercharger is the fastest charging option when you’re away from home, allowing you to charge your car up to 322 miles in 15 minutes. This is really impressive. From year to year, the number of Superchargers is rapidly increasing:

Tesla continues to grow as the company is just starting out.

 

Superchargers for Non-Tesla EV Owners

Tesla provides a great opportunity to charge cars for other EV manufacturers at its Supercharger stations. This actually makes a big difference. Many people don’t want to buy an EV because of the lack of charging stations. Tesla is gradually breaking this stereotype. Here’s a list of countries where the non-Tesla Supercharger pilot is currently available for Supercharging stations:

  • United States

  • Australia

  • France

  • The Netherlands

  • Norway

  • UK

  • Spain

  • Sweden

  • Belgium

  • Austria

  • Denmark

  • Finland

  • Germany

  • Luxembourg

  • Switzerland

  • Iceland

  • Italy

For Tesla, the expansion of Supercharger stations is a priority:

Launched in November 2021, our non-Tesla Supercharger pilot will continue to expand to new sites and countries in support of our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

More customers using the Supercharger network enables faster expansion. Our goal is to learn and iterate quickly while continuing to aggressively expand the network, so we can eventually welcome both Tesla and non-Tesla drivers at every Supercharger worldwide.

—Tesla

Tesla Superchargers for Non-Tesla Owners in the U.S.

Tesla has once again taken a step to speed up the transition and put an end to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.

The company said it will open 3,500 new and existing chargers by the end of 2024. The decision to open Supercharger stations for non-Tesla EVs will allow people in the United States to travel around the country, making their lives much more convenient. This is another step towards getting closer to customers.

There are many questions about all the types of connectors supported by the Supercharger posts. This is what Tesla's official website says about it:

This pilot is only accessible for CCS-enabled vehicles. If a Supercharger post has two cables or an installed adapter, non-Tesla cars can only charge with the CCS connector. Tesla is unable to accommodate vehicles that do not fully comply with CCS communication and safety protocols. If you encounter any issues while charging your vehicle, reach out to Tesla Customer Support or your vehicle manufacturer.

—Tesla

To learn more about non-Tesla supercharging, click here.

Tesla Investor Day Preview

By Amy, Tesla Investor | Follow her on Twitter: @SF___Tahoe

“Long term, I’m convinced that Tesla will be the most valuable company on Earth.”

—Elon Musk

How does a company become the most valuable company on Earth? It’s a lofty goal! Many of the answers will be found when Elon Musk releases his Master Plan Three at Tesla’s next event. Investor Day was announced at the beginning of January with Q4’22 delivery numbers. It will be held at GigaFactory Texas on March 1, 2023. All signs indicate that it will be a smaller event (more like the Semi Reveal at GigaNevada than the Cyber-Rodeo). Investor Day keynote speeches will be live-streamed, and there will be a Q&A afterward. Some institutional investors, and randomly chosen retail investors, will attend in person. Expect to hear updates on growth plans in all areas of Tesla’s business.

Investor Day Topics

  1. Master Plan 3 Reveal

  2. Capital Allocation

  3. Gen 3 Platform 

  4. Most Advanced Production Line Tour & Tesla Plaid Rides (attendees only)

  5. Discussions with Management about above topics and others (attendees only)

Tesla Press Release

Elon Musk’s goal is to extend the light of human consciousness, both by making life better on Earth and making all life (not just humans) multi-planetary. All Musk companies have a role to play in these goals.

Elon Musk recently tweeted that the term “Investor” is used in the context of all people and life on Earth, so Master Plan 3, which will be revealed at Investor Day, will be the most ambitious yet. 

What do we know about Master Plan 3? It is the third Master Plan for Tesla. Chart of first two:

For starters, Master Plan 3 is the path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth. This is an enormous goal that will require extreme scale and moving tonnage of materials and products. Perhaps some of these logistics will be addressed.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE

Elon has talked about pathways to a sustainable energy future many times in the past. 

Elon has said a sustainable energy future could be achieved using the existing grid structure and a mix of solar and batteries. It will be interesting to see if these thoughts have evolved.

Elon has addressed what Master Plan 3 would be about before. But in thinking about Master Plan 3, we need to think Elon Musk big—civilizational-level big!—on what Master Plan 3 entails. Elon Musk has said that, while the path will be difficult, he can foresee Tesla becoming the biggest company in the world—bigger than Aramco and Apple combined. 

Saying Master Plan (mé-nage à) Trois would be about “tonnage.” Ménage a Trois is classic Meme-Lord humor: But could the mix of “three” also be a reference to an element of the Master Plan? A mix of Elon Musk companies? Three main elements to the plan? Comment with your thoughts. 

“Solar/wind + batteries + electric cars is obviously the future.”

—Elon Musk

Massive scale-up of supply needs to happen. 

Tonnage is also a reference to the limiting factor of battery components and minerals. Tesla has put out a call to mining companies and entrepreneurs to start refining companies (calling lithium refining a license to print money)! Important to remember: Battery components aren’t like oil that can only be burned once. They don’t degrade and are almost 100% recyclable. So the tonnage plan needs to be a one-time plan—once enough battery components are mined, they can be recycled. Battery components are already being recycled. Tesla’s goal is to use 100% of all supplies that come in through the factory door. For example, scrap metal from the stamping department is thrown into the Gigacasting machine melting pot. Tesla typically first tells their existing suppliers what their future needs are; if the suppliers can’t fully accommodate the planned growth, then Tesla will continue to take all that their suppliers can provide but also vertically integrate to fill in the gap, like with the planned lithium refinery.

Tesla Solar

Auto has long been Tesla’s focus due to supply constraints. Energy is starting to make waves, but what about solar? Tesla’s entry into the solar business started with the Solar City acquisition, then one of the largest solar installers in the US. Solar produces a respectable 348 MWh, per year, but both solar and energy have been hampered in the past by supply constraints. 

“The sun is absurdly, overwhelmingly the source of energy in our solar system. It doesn’t even need maintenance, it just works.”

—Elon Musk

The sun provides energy every day, but humans harness little of this energy. Elon has indicated that ideally, energy would be a distributed system with solar and battery packs at houses, but permitting and installation are a hold-up. 

A distributed solar/battery system could be combined with some large solar/wind farms and the existing transmission lines. This would hasten the advent of a sustainable energy future. Elon has addressed how little space is actually required to power the US (100 x 100 sq. miles) and the Earth many times in the past. He has suggested a single massive solar array in Spain could power all of Europe.

“Wind and solar, combined with batteries, will solve sustainable energy for Earth.”

—Elon Musk

TESLA ENERGY

“Tesla Megapack (and Powerwall) will make a massive difference to achieving a sustainable energy future for Earth!”

—Elon Musk

Tesla currently has three levels of energy products—Powerwall for individual households, PowerPacks, behind-the-meter installations for large businesses, and MegaPacks, utility level BESS—battery electric storage system.

Zach Kirkhorn on Tesla Energy: “The Energy business had its strongest year yet across all metrics, led by steady improvement in both retail and commercial storage. As we look towards 2023, we are moving forward aggressively leveraging our strength and cost. There are three key points I wanted to make here. First, on demand, as Elon mentioned, customer interest in our products remains high. Second, on cost reduction, we're holding steady on our plans to rapidly increase volume, while improving overhead efficiency, which is the most effective method to retain strength in our operating margins. In particular, we're accelerating improvements in our new factories in Austin, Berlin and in-house cells, where efficiencies are the highest.”

Elon has stated many times that the future of a sustainable energy civilization is solar combined with battery storage, making Tesla Energy a key part of Master Plan 3.

Expect to hear some major updates on Tesla’s future plans for solar and energy on the path to a sustainable future. Energy has hit the high growth stage. At the most recent earnings call, it was noted that Energy is growing faster than Auto. Zach Kirkhorn said Tesla’s 40GWh Lathrop Factory that produces MegaPack is ramping. GigaNevada expansion has been announced. Energy is poised for major developments. Elon has agreed there is near-infinite global demand for energy storage. Tesla is on a path to 1,000 GWh (or 1 Terrawatt) a year of production. Elon has promised updates on new MegaPack factories and plans this year and next. 

TESLA AUTO

In transitioning the world to a sustainable future, don’t forget electric vehicles! Transitioning the existing global auto fleet—new and used cars estimated at 2 billion!—to EVs will reduce global emissions by 25%. Extreme scale will be necessary for the auto business, too, broadening out both the EVs on the road and with Robotaxi working around the clock.

Robotaxi/Gen 3 Platform

A Robotaxi can be used 24/7, dramatically increasing the positive emissions reduction from each electric car produced. 

Robotaxis obviously will require FSD to be solved. On the value of FSD on the Q4’22 Earnings Call, Elon said: 

“Every time we sell a car, it has the ability, just from uploading software to have full self-driving enabled …there’s millions of cars where full self-driving can be sold at essentially 100% gross margin. And the value of it grows as the autonomous capability grows. And then when it becomes fully autonomous, that is a value increase in the fleet. That might be the biggest asset value increase of anything in history.”

Elon Musk Q422 Earnings Call

There are other companies that are working on FSD—Waymo, Cruise, and Baidu.

Elon on the competitors in the FSD space:

“Right now, I don’t think you could see a second place [FSD general solution] with a telescope, at least we can’t.”

GEN 3 PLATFORM

“It’s always been our goal at Tesla to make cars that are affordable to as many people as possible.”

Elon Musk, Q4’22 Earnings Call

The Investor Day agenda includes the Gen 3 Platform. What do we know about the Gen 3 Platform? The goal is a step change improvement of BOM costs and to be able to sell a car profitably at a $20-25K price. Elon has indicated the goal is to make two cars in the time and effort it takes to make one Model 3. 

“The next-generation vehicle will be about half the cost of the 3/Y platform and it will be smaller…It will, I think, certainly exceed the production of all other vehicles combined.”

—Elon Musk

It will not be just one vehicle but a platform from which multiple vehicles can be produced. The Investor Day invite background was decoded. Is this the Gen 3?

This goal represents a two-fold increase in the pace of production with a 50% decrease in cost! Growing auto CAGR ~50% YoY on a multi-year horizon will require extreme efficiency and reducing costs. To sell 20 million cars a year, Tesla will have to appeal to a much broader addressable market. 

PRODUCTION LINE TOUR

In furtherance of the Tesla Mission of increasing EV adoption, Tesla is always focused on gaining efficiencies and lowering costs. Tesla Investor Day will include a tour of a production line (no photos allowed). Management has talked about this drive for production efficiency on many occasions. For example:

Elon Musk, Zach Kirkhorn, and Drew Baglino have spoken about Tesla’s drive to lower costs. Elon has long said Tesla’s advantage was the Machine that builds the Machine, or the alien dreadnaught. 

“On the powertrain side, we’re…going..after…some materials where we’re paying for more performance than we need…without impacting reliability at all. Adds up to a pretty significant cost reduction on the powertrain side over the course of 2023. So we’re not just sort of relying on supply. We’re also doing design actions to bring cost out.”

Drew Baglino, Tesla SVP Q4’22 Earnings Call

One part of Tesla’s continuous focus on cost reductions is the rumored Project Highland for the Model 3, possibly Y. Project Highland is rumored to feature many improvements with cost efficiency gained through design and production improvements. It is possible the production line tour will showcase some of these innovations. Great videos here on what is known or forecast:

We know Tesla is attacking costs (COGs) on all possible levels: through a supply chain redesign, extreme focus on production efficiencies (by car design, removing unnecessary parts, castings), reducing battery costs (through battery chemistry and production innovations), and using as close to 100% of the supplies that come in the door. 

CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Capital allocation is a topic of Investor Day. Master Plan 3 will require capital expenditure. Locking down raw materials, supplier contracts, logistics, and new factories all may be discussed. Elon has indicated that share buybacks would be considered. Perhaps investors would like some clarity on how Tesla intends to spend the increasing cash balance of the company? We know that some new factory announcements can be expected in the next few years, along with new products.

“In severe recessions, cash is king... I feel we’re in a very strong position to get through a recession, because we really don’t have any debt. And we’ve got over $20 billion of cash, which is great.”

Elon Musk Q4’22 Earnings Call

TESLA OTHER BUSINESSES

There will be a lot to talk about on Investor Day. Perhaps we also hear updates on Optimus, AI-as-a-service/Dojo, and Tesla Insurance. Does Tesla have other products/business areas in the pipeline we don’t know about yet? The future is bright! 

We’ve [Tesla] has more great ideas…then we know what to do with. So the future is very exciting. 

The three pillars of a sustainable energy future are obviously electric vehicles, solar and wind, and the third key item is stationary storage to store the energy from solar and wind because obviously, the sun doesn't shine all the time and the wind doesn't blow all the time. So you have those three things, you can convert all of it to a fully sustainable situation many times over, actually. So I would like to just make it clear that there is a path to a fully sustainable future for humanity, and we -- our goal at Tesla is to accelerate progress on that path as much as humanly possible.’

Elon Musk Q4’22 Earnings Call

Tesla has many possible pipeline products. One possibility: Elon has tweeted for years about his desire to do a home HVAC system. This would replace the need for fossil fuels that are used in many places. An electric heat pump can be used for both AC and heat. Combined with solar, Powerwalls, and an EV would create a complete Tesla home solution. Elon just tweeted about an ideal air conditioner system again. 

“We have other products in development. We're not going to announce them, obviously, but they're very exciting. And I think it will blow people's minds when they -- when we reveal them. Tesla has the most exciting product road map of any company on earth by a long shot.”

—Elon Musk

While it is unknown what may be discussed at Investor Day, Tesla will continue to innovate, and the future is bright.

Trust Ted Product Review: Lasfit Floor Mats

By Ted Marena

We believe that each Tesla vehicle is not just a car or some form of transportation. Most owners adore their vehicles and want to ensure they are clean and protected. Everyone has different standards when it comes to protecting their Tesla. More specifically, the interior floors. If you love your Tesla as we do, then you want to make sure it is as nice looking as possible.

There exist many floor mats, frunk protectors, and trunk mats. For some individuals, the look of the mat is more important, but others want more protection for the carpets, while others may want a more comfortable feel for their mats. Lasfit is a Tesla accessory company that has introduced nice looking and feeling mats for the Model Y and 3. They feature tabs that help lock the mats in place, so they don’t slide around. We recently reviewed these mats in a video. Check it out here:

Trust Ted Product Review: TESPLUS Mud Flaps

By Ted Marena

Although we live in Silicon Valley, where the weather generally is great, many owners live in climates that have four seasons. These Tesla owners experience sun, rain, and snow. All of us have to deal with road dirt and debris when we drive the vehicles we love. These conditions of varied weather and road challenges can be tough on the paint on your Tesla. In particular, the bottom panels just behind the wheels are susceptible to dirt, grime, mud, etc. To help protect your vehicle from the road and various weather conditions, you could install mud flaps on your vehicle. We recently reviewed mud flaps from TESPLUS. Check out our recent video.

Trust Ted Product Review: Blink HQ200 Home Charger

By Ted Marena

One of the most convenient features of our Teslas is the charging. If you own a home and want the most convenient charging, installing a home charger makes complete sense. But which charger should you install? Some homeowners may want to install a charger with the J1772 port to use for their Tesla with an adapter and other vehicles. There are many factors to consider when choosing an EV charger.

Here are some key certifications to look for in an EV charger. I installed one of the approved chargers from Blink in TOSV President John Stringer’s garage. He was thrilled with the Blink HQ200 charging station. Not only is it convenient, but it also gives him peace of mind knowing that his car can be charged and ready for the next day's adventure. Check out our video installation and review of the Blink HQ200.

Tesla Q4 2022 Earnings and Call Overview

By Amy, Tesla Investor | Follow her on Twitter: @SF___Tahoe

Tesla announced another record quarter and record year yesterday. Tesla’s Q4 ’22 earnings were a beat both on EPS and revenue.

The numbers:

  • EPS (non-GAAP): $1.19 vs. $1.10 est.

  • EPS (GAAP): $1.07 vs. $0.98 est.

  • Revenue: $24.318B vs. $23.6B est.

  • Automotive Gross Margin: 25.9% (v.s. 26.4% est.)

  • $3.687 GAAP net income

Tesla once again executed better than expected. Also of importance was the 2023 guidance. There were warnings in the guidance about the uncertain nature of the macro environment. Tesla reaffirmed ~50% YoY growth on a multi-year horizon (starting with 2021 numbers) but tempered expectations by guiding to 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 (allows for a less than “calm” macro environment). This is less than 50% YoY but aligns with the long-term growth target. Notably, Tesla is playing Wall Street’s game, reducing its internal goal of 2 million cars (they have enough supply and demand) to 1.8 million cars to manage expectations. Musk noted [if there was] a severe recession, cash is king. He wants to be cautious about using cash. Tesla is in a strong position with just $44M in debt and $22B in cash.

Demand

Demand concerns were addressed both for auto and energy products. Auto orders from the beginning of the year are at the greatest rate ever, probably 2x production. In fact, Tesla raised their prices slightly for the Model Y. Tesla plans to grow auto production as fast as possible. Continued focus on Tesla being the best manufacturer will sustain its competitive advantage. Consumer interest and demand for energy are high.

Margins

Margin concerns were partially addressed as well. Tesla had increasing manufacturing efficiencies in the quarter. Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn said Tesla is improving volume while improving overhead efficiencies. Tesla is attacking every area of cost and redesigning its supply chain. Tesla did not provide specific guidance on margins, stating there is a lot of uncertainty. But Kirkhorn did note they are hoping to stay above an auto gross margin of 20% and ASP of $47,000.

Managing to Max Operating Margin

Kirkhorn said Tesla is now maximizing operating margin as other areas become more important, particularly energy. My take: No longer is auto profit margin and deliveries king. Now gross margins are. There are ramifications in the way Tesla is run moving forward. Auto used to be able to steal resources and supplies from other departments. For example, during the Model 3 ramp, all employees that could help did. So, in my opinion, this is a change from the past and de-emphasizes autos moving forward. It also reduces the importance of high auto margins. Elon Musk noted that retail investors understand the worth of software sales.

Auto is now one component. Internal resources will likely be deployed based on contribution to gross margin. This is a part of a shift to ramping energy, not just auto. Energy is affirmed to have outsize growth for the next several years. This also makes room for services like FSD, insurance, and others. Tesla is not resource constrained. It is notable that no specific supply constraints were mentioned (past issues with computer chips seem resolved), and it was affirmed there are enough battery components to ramp energy and auto.

TESLA AUTO

CyberTruck

CyberTruck is on track for production mid-summer, with volume production in 2024. Tesla is currently installing production equipment and have produced beta vehicles. GigaTexas has built one of four lines. They are commissioning and installing the other three. CyberTruck will have FSD Hardware 4.

Gen 3 Platform

Elon Musk is already moving into the future when the rest of us are looking at the past. First comments on the Gen 3 platform will be made on Investor Day. New efficiencies were mentioned in drivetrains—improving cost of goods sold (COGS) by design, not just supply cost savings) and battery cells, both of which will be required to produce two Gen 3 Platform vehicles for the cost of one Model 3.

Commercial Vehicles

There will be a new factory for Tesla Semi in Nevada. Given IRA incentives for commercial vehicles, Musk was asked about Tesla's plans for commercial vehicles outside of the Semi but did not go into details. Of course….

Tesla Insurance

Tesla Insurance won’t be broken out separately on financials. Kirkhorn indicated it was worth about a $300 million run rate. Insurance is growing at 20% per quarter (growing faster than vehicles). Tesla Insurance improves the cost of ownership for consumers and provides a feedback loop for engineering on the costs of repairs.

FSD

FSD is now released to almost 400,000 people in the US and Canada. There was no specific information on FSD take rates: Musk said enthusiasm increased with each release. FSD Hardware 4 is a significant upgrade. It will increase FSD from 200-300x to 500-600x better than a human driver. Musk noted it wouldn’t be economically feasible to upgrade customers from HW3 to HW4. FSD revenue recognition is two components: Fully recognizing EAP at the point of sale versus incremental recognition of FSD, where only a portion is recognized, and the rest is deferred revenue.

AI

Elon said Tesla is an AI company. FSD interface is the most efficient interface computer in the world. Tesla has Dojo, a world-class AI talent joining Tesla, Optimus, and a car robot on wheels. He doesn’t see anyone close to Tesla in solving real-world AI. AI is an order of magnitude potential and could have a 10x increase in Tesla’s market cap. Elon Musk said he was talking with the Tesla AI/FSD team the previous night to determine which other FSD solution was closest to Tesla’s. Tesla views itself as having a commanding FSD lead. Elon said he “can’t see the second-place team with a telescope!”

Tesla Energy

Tesla Energy is the best ever for both utility and consumer products. Tesla Energy saw record growth, and it is accelerating. MegaPacks are expected to grow at a faster rate than Auto. Energy storage deployments increased by 152% YoY in Q4 to 2.5 GWh, for a total deployment of 6.5 GWh in 2022. Tesla is also ramping production at Lathrop with the MegaPack factory because MegaPack demand exceeds production. Tesla is trying to find the fastest path to 1,000 GWh productions. Tesla is carefully thinking about more MegaPack factories. There are possible factory announcements later this year and next. Tesla made strides toward Battery Day's goal of improving battery efficiency. They are now applying Tesla’s manufacturing competitive strength to battery cells. Tesla noted the small footprint of the announced factory in Nevada for 100MWh vs. the current space to produce much less MWh, which is indicative of battery cell manufacturing advances.

IRA Credits

Elon said long-term IRA battery credits are probably gigantic but not significant for this year because battery production is being split with Panasonic. Kirkhorn said IRA will have $150-250 million credits per quarter this year, growing quarter over quarter. Tesla will be moving more battery manufacturing onshore, which is already the plan and will use credits to improve affordability.

My Take

It was an excellent earnings call. Tesla is managing for sustained growth of its Energy and Auto divisions. Tesla is prepared to weather a severe recession if necessary and continuously drives to reduce costs through production efficiencies, redesigning the supply chain, and vertically integrating, where necessary. Allusions were made to new, not yet-known pipeline products. Tesla has increased its profit from every dollar spent and increased its leverage from Q421 vs. Q422. Net profits were +59% on a +37% increase in net revenue, a 22% difference. Its factories are evermore efficient, production is streamlined, the design was improved, and supply costs were lowered. Plus, Tesla is ramping up Energy, FSD, and its other services.

Trust Ted Product Review: Hydroflask Cup Insert

By Ted Marena

One of the great aspects of owning a Tesla is that numerous aftermarket products further improve upon the best vehicle in the world. The merchandise that many companies have created is wide and varied. Some products incorporate technical components; others are simpler and made from injection-molded plastic.

These products must achieve reasonably high volumes to pay back the tooling costs. An alternative to avoid these costs can be achieved by leveraging 3D-printed products. One such product is great for those with a 32 or 40-oz Hydroflask water bottle. This 3D-printed cup holder insert from DrPrintsALot is great for Tesla owners who always drink water from a Hydroflask. Now you can safely drive your vehicle with the water bottle secure and within arms reach. Check out our review of this product.